Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 4 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on November 13?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 18¢ · $272 held · ended Nov 13

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$271.87

Combined PnL

-$75.09

Smart Money Entry

18.5¢ → 18¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$163.7

Total Shares1,310

Combined PnL-$74.54

No8 traders

Total Value$108.17

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$0.56

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 18.2¢	$155.48	$95.65	-$39.84	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$70.63	$36.77	-$29.05	38% 543-874 (1417)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$27.43	$28.74	+$1.32	53% 6618-5816 (12434)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.3¢	$39.64	$28.61	-$3.43	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$34.93	$28.54	-$6.39	39% 31-48 (79)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 75.2¢	$14.38	$15.87	+$1.49	73% 778-291 (1069)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 84¢	$15.38	$10.91	-$0.27	65% 4251-2269 (6520)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 85.5¢	$8.71	$8.51	-$0.2	50% 726-731 (1457)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 82¢	$5.7	$5.78	+$0.07	58% 656-481 (1137)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$5.52	$5.53	+$0.01	48% 684-728 (1412)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.76	$4.22	+$0.46	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2	$2.75	+$0.75	58% 632-454 (1086)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$155.48

Value

$95.65

PnL

-$39.84

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.63

Value

$36.77

PnL

-$29.05

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$27.43

Value

$28.74

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

6618-5816 (12434)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.64

Value

$28.61

PnL

-$3.43

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.93

Value

$28.54

PnL

-$6.39

Record

39%

31-48 (79)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.38

Value

$15.87

PnL

+$1.49

Record

73%

778-291 (1069)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$15.38

Value

$10.91

PnL

-$0.27

Record

65%

4251-2269 (6520)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$8.71

Value

$8.51

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0.07

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.53

PnL

+$0.01

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0.46

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

58%

632-454 (1086)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 12 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.8%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$405.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

505.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.