Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on November 13?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 93¢ · $79 held · ends Nov 13

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$78.86

Combined PnL

-$0.46

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$51.29

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$0.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$27.52

Total Shares344

Combined PnL-$0.79

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93¢	$26.89	$26.05	+$0.05	53% 905-797 (1702)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$18.46	$16.88	-$1.58	63% 2135-1236 (3371)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$13.58	$13.84	+$0.26	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.1¢	$7.76	$8.8	+$1.04	35% 407-742 (1149)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93¢	$6.66	$6.67	+$0.01	45% 512-638 (1150)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 93.1¢	$4.73	$4.73	+$0	63% 463-277 (740)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$1.84	-$0.25	62% 463-283 (746)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.89

Value

$26.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.46

Value

$16.88

PnL

-$1.58

Record

63%

2135-1236 (3371)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13.58

Value

$13.84

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.76

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$1.04

Record

35%

407-742 (1149)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.67

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

512-638 (1150)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.73

PnL

+$0

Record

63%

463-277 (740)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$1.84

PnL

-$0.25

Record

62%

463-283 (746)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.1%

92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.