Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on November 13?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $64 held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$63.84

Combined PnL

-$43.23

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$61.3

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$0.11

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.36

Total Shares786

Combined PnL-$43.34

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$23.36	$23.31	-$0.05	48% 710-781 (1491)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.97	+$0.18	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.15	$7.14	-$0.01	50% 651-658 (1309)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.12	$5.11	-$0.01	50% 690-680 (1370)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$5.04	$5.04	+$0.01	45% 1020-1259 (2279)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0.01	58% 656-481 (1137)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1015-11 (1026)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.77	$1.77	+$0	48% 684-728 (1412)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.45	$1.46	+$0	50% 726-731 (1457)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$37.03	$1.22	-$35.81	58% 2224-1622 (3846)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$5.04	$1.02	-$4.02	38% 543-874 (1417)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.63	$0.12	-$3.51	45% 4955-6107 (11062)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$23.36

Value

$23.31

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

710-781 (1491)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

651-658 (1309)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$5.11

PnL

-$0.01

Record

50%

690-680 (1370)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$0.01

Record

45%

1020-1259 (2279)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

656-481 (1137)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.77

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

684-728 (1412)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

726-731 (1457)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.03

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$35.81

Record

58%

2224-1622 (3846)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.04

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$4.02

Record

38%

543-874 (1417)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.63

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$3.51

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.