Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$93.72
$0
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.92 | $39.92 | +$0 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.94 | $29.94 | +$0 | 12% 52-372 (424) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.96 | +$0 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $3.89 | $3.89 | -$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.01 | $0.02 | +$0 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
Invested
$39.92
Value
$39.92
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Invested
$29.94
Value
$29.94
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
52-372 (424)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$3.89
Value
$3.89
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.