Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $84 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$83.97
-$1.72
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-29 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $29.31 | $28.59 | -$0.72 | 22% 80-280 (360) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $19.06 | -$0.88 | 37% 3143-5368 (8511) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $19.56 | $19.06 | -$0.5 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $5.64 | $5.83 | +$0.19 | 68% 2062-949 (3011) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $5.56 | $5.56 | +$0 | 54% 493-423 (916) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $3.8 | $3.71 | -$0.09 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $1.88 | $2.16 | +$0.28 | 30% 258-593 (851) |
Invested
$29.31
Value
$28.59
PnL
-$0.72
Record
22%
80-280 (360)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.06
PnL
-$0.88
Record
37%
3143-5368 (8511)
Invested
$19.56
Value
$19.06
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$5.64
Value
$5.83
PnL
+$0.19
Record
68%
2062-949 (3011)
Invested
$5.56
Value
$5.56
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
493-423 (916)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.71
PnL
-$0.09
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$2.16
PnL
+$0.28
Record
30%
258-593 (851)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.