Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 77¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$176.3
-$7.48
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $97.66 | $94.8 | -$2.86 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $27.98 | $28.97 | +$1 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $22.05 | -$0.45 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $14.7 | -$0.3 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $13.2 | -$4.4 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.04 | $2.57 | -$0.47 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
Invested
$97.66
Value
$94.8
PnL
-$2.86
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$27.98
Value
$28.97
PnL
+$1
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.05
PnL
-$0.45
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$15
Value
$14.7
PnL
-$0.3
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$13.2
PnL
-$4.4
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
Invested
$3.04
Value
$2.57
PnL
-$0.47
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.