Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 12?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 45¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$365.65
$33.93
41.5¢ → 45¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $289.53 | $323.88 | +$34.34 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $16.2 | $15.75 | -$0.45 | 40% 1433-2157 (3590) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $11 | -$0.8 | 53% 5552-4936 (10488) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $9 | $9.5 | +$0.5 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $2.75 | +$0 | 37% 3112-5362 (8474) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.14 | $2.14 | -$0 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $0.29 | $0.63 | +$0.34 | 55% 399-332 (731) |
Invested
$289.53
Value
$323.88
PnL
+$34.34
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$15.75
PnL
-$0.45
Record
40%
1433-2157 (3590)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
5552-4936 (10488)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$2.75
Value
$2.75
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
3112-5362 (8474)
Invested
$2.14
Value
$2.14
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$0.29
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$0.34
Record
55%
399-332 (731)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.