Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on November 12?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 77¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$121.7
$13.3
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $72.85 | $83.03 | +$10.18 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $12.6 | $14.4 | +$1.8 | 52% 5344-4847 (10191) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 65.5¢ | $11.39 | $12.52 | +$1.13 | 50% 274-269 (543) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $8.74 | $8.74 | +$0 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $2.81 | $3.01 | +$0.2 | 29% 2470-6157 (8627) |
Invested
$72.85
Value
$83.03
PnL
+$10.18
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$14.4
PnL
+$1.8
Record
52%
5344-4847 (10191)
Invested
$11.39
Value
$12.52
PnL
+$1.13
Record
50%
274-269 (543)
Invested
$8.74
Value
$8.74
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$2.81
Value
$3.01
PnL
+$0.2
Record
29%
2470-6157 (8627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.