Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on November 12?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $20 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$20.49

Combined PnL

-$90.94

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$19.99

Total Shares20

Combined PnL+$0.37

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.5

Total Shares907

Combined PnL-$91.31

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$19.62	$19.99	+$0.37	53% 5981-5353 (11334)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.61	$0.18	-$32.43	65% 2122-1162 (3284)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$22.95	$0.13	-$22.82	60% 1155-768 (1923)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.22	$0.08	-$6.59	63% 444-260 (704)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$87.9	$0.07	-$18.86	17% 87-438 (525)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$39.07	$0.02	-$6.24	37% 3428-5859 (9287)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.68	$0.01	-$2.12	30% 2929-6852 (9781)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.8	$0.01	-$1.79	47% 4794-5409 (10203)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	39% 1379-2181 (3560)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.62

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.37

Record

53%

5981-5353 (11334)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.61

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$32.43

Record

65%

2122-1162 (3284)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.95

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$22.82

Record

60%

1155-768 (1923)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.22

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$6.59

Record

63%

444-260 (704)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.9

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$18.86

Record

17%

87-438 (525)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.07

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.24

Record

37%

3428-5859 (9287)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.68

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.12

Record

30%

2929-6852 (9781)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.79

Record

47%

4794-5409 (10203)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

39%

1379-2181 (3560)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.