Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $188 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$188.01
-$0.22
99.8¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $74.93 | $74.93 | +$0 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $39.44 | $39.29 | -$0.15 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $29.86 | $29.97 | +$0.11 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.82 | -$0.15 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.17 | $10.12 | -$0.05 | 47% 353-400 (753) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $3.87 | $3.89 | +$0.02 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$74.93
Value
$74.93
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$39.44
Value
$39.29
PnL
-$0.15
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$29.86
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.11
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.82
PnL
-$0.15
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$10.17
Value
$10.12
PnL
-$0.05
Record
47%
353-400 (753)
Invested
$3.87
Value
$3.89
PnL
+$0.02
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.