Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on November 11?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $247 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$246.93
$0.02
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.9¢ | $123.88 | $123.88 | +$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.91 | $79.92 | +$0.02 | 100% 95-0 (95) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.97 | +$0 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $13.17 | $13.17 | +$0 | 31% 190-424 (614) |
LucerysInvested
$123.88
Value
$123.88
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$79.91
Value
$79.92
PnL
+$0.02
Record
100%
95-0 (95)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$13.17
Value
$13.17
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
190-424 (614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.