Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $365 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$364.58
$0.05
99.7¢ → 99.1¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.7¢ | $210.65 | $210.69 | +$0.04 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $57.73 | $57.73 | -$0 | 43% 387-516 (903) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $50.62 | $50.62 | -$0 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | -$0 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $13.13 | $13.14 | +$0.01 | 48% 343-365 (708) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 99% 275-2 (277) |
LucerysInvested
$210.65
Value
$210.69
PnL
+$0.04
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
Invested
$57.73
Value
$57.73
PnL
-$0
Record
43%
387-516 (903)
balthazar<$100Invested
$50.62
Value
$50.62
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$13.13
Value
$13.14
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
343-365 (708)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
99%
275-2 (277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.