Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $185 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$184.58
-$4.15
93.6¢ → 94¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 93.3¢ | $106.64 | $107.5 | +$0.86 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $28.95 | $28.68 | -$0.27 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $19.9 | $20.47 | +$1.34 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.1¢ | $21.77 | $15.7 | -$6.07 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 95.6¢ | $12.24 | $12.24 | -$0 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
LucerysInvested
$106.64
Value
$107.5
PnL
+$0.86
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$28.95
Value
$28.68
PnL
-$0.27
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$20.47
PnL
+$1.34
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
Invested
$21.77
Value
$15.7
PnL
-$6.07
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$12.24
Value
$12.24
PnL
-$0
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.