Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 55¢ · $106 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$105.84
$3.77
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $68.05 | $70.68 | +$2.63 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $16.2 | $17.1 | +$0.9 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $7.38 | $7.31 | -$0.07 | 34% 199-384 (583) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $6.91 | $7.3 | +$0.38 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $3.53 | $3.45 | -$0.08 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$68.05
Value
$70.68
PnL
+$2.63
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$17.1
PnL
+$0.9
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$7.38
Value
$7.31
PnL
-$0.07
Record
34%
199-384 (583)
Invested
$6.91
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$0.38
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$3.53
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$0.08
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.