Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on November 11?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $186 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$186.41
$1.46
99.1¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.1¢ | $122.89 | $123.88 | +$0.99 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.97 | +$0.06 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $12.65 | $12.79 | +$0.14 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.29 | $12.29 | +$0 | 45% 374-466 (840) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $4.72 | $4.99 | +$0.27 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | -$0 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
LucerysInvested
$122.89
Value
$123.88
PnL
+$0.99
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.97
PnL
+$0.06
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Invested
$12.65
Value
$12.79
PnL
+$0.14
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$12.29
Value
$12.29
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
374-466 (840)
Invested
$4.72
Value
$4.99
PnL
+$0.27
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.