Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $23 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$22.53
$0.09
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $6.55 | $6.55 | +$0 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.17 | $5.17 | -$0 | 34% 199-384 (583) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $4.99 | $4.98 | -$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $3.23 | $3.32 | +$0.09 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.5 | $2.5 | +$0 | 100% 95-0 (95) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$6.55
Value
$6.55
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$5.17
Value
$5.17
PnL
-$0
Record
34%
199-384 (583)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$3.23
Value
$3.32
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
95-0 (95)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.