Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 10?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 86¢ · $125 held · ended Nov 10

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$124.89

Combined PnL

-$0.97

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$64.14

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$0.91

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.49

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.06

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$71.67	$60.26	-$1.33	28% 209-544 (753)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.3¢	$41.83	$38.89	-$3.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.2¢	$19.21	$21.37	+$2.16
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$45.56	$27.66	+$0.02	53% 325-288 (613)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$19.3	$19.49	+$0.19	84% 481-91 (572)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$6.41	$5.92	-$0.49	50% 4547-4458 (9005)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$4.89	$4.52	-$0.37	36% 3004-5342 (8346)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.52	-$0.24	38% 1223-1986 (3209)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$2.07	$2.04	-$0.03	38% 253-414 (667)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$0.54	$0.49	-$0.06	38% 575-934 (1509)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$71.67

Value

$60.26

PnL

-$1.33

Record

28%

209-544 (753)

Both legs:

No$41.8395.3¢-$3.49

Yes$19.2110.2¢+$2.16

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.56

Value

$27.66

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

325-288 (613)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$19.3

Value

$19.49

PnL

+$0.19

Record

84%

481-91 (572)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$6.41

Value

$5.92

PnL

-$0.49

Record

50%

4547-4458 (9005)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.37

Record

36%

3004-5342 (8346)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.52

PnL

-$0.24

Record

38%

1223-1986 (3209)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.07

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

253-414 (667)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

575-934 (1509)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.2%

85.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.