Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $44 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$43.7
$0.66
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $16.55 | $17.18 | +$0.63 | 52% 231-215 (446) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $9.75 | $9.66 | -$0.09 | 21% 135-495 (630) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 91.3¢ | $7.34 | $7.45 | +$0.11 | 88% 418-56 (474) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $4.77 | $4.77 | +$0 | 32% 174-367 (541) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $4.64 | $4.64 | +$0 | 35% 2865-5318 (8183) |
Invested
$16.55
Value
$17.18
PnL
+$0.63
Record
52%
231-215 (446)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.66
PnL
-$0.09
Record
21%
135-495 (630)
Invested
$7.34
Value
$7.45
PnL
+$0.11
Record
88%
418-56 (474)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$4.77
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
174-367 (541)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.64
Value
$4.64
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
2865-5318 (8183)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.