Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $21 held · ended Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$21.17
-$0.25
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $6.55 | $6.55 | +$0 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $5.13 | $5.13 | -$0 | 37% 190-317 (507) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $4.99 | $4.98 | -$0 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $3.5 | $3.5 | +$0 | 100% 95-0 (95) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $1.25 | $1 | -$0.25 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$6.55
Value
$6.55
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
190-317 (507)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$4.99
Value
$4.98
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
95-0 (95)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$1
PnL
-$0.25
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.