Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $171 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$171.16
$16.72
87¢ → 96.9¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 84.8¢ | $78.17 | $86.84 | +$8.67 | 60% 1652-1111 (2763) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $36.97 | $44.19 | +$6.79 | 55% 310-252 (562) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $33.59 | $33.31 | -$0.28 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 84.2¢ | $30.34 | $6.13 | +$2.71 | 57% 13319-10177 (23496) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $1.87 | $0.69 | -$1.18 | 53% 6389-5593 (11982) |
Invested
$78.17
Value
$86.84
PnL
+$8.67
Record
60%
1652-1111 (2763)
Invested
$36.97
Value
$44.19
PnL
+$6.79
Record
55%
310-252 (562)
balthazar<$100Invested
$33.59
Value
$33.31
PnL
-$0.28
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$30.34
Value
$6.13
PnL
+$2.71
Record
57%
13319-10177 (23496)
Invested
$1.87
Value
$0.69
PnL
-$1.18
Record
53%
6389-5593 (11982)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.