Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on October 29?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 37¢ · $406 held · ends Oct 29

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$405.76

Combined PnL

-$112.06

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$136

Total Shares1,183

Combined PnL-$119.45

No4 traders

Total Value$269.76

Total Shares298

Combined PnL+$7.4

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$255.46	$136	-$119.45	51% 577-548 (1125)
Istaroth	Noavg 77.7¢	$133.02	$125.57	-$5.59	28% 280-709 (989)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$77.61	$87.49	+$9.88	50% 1642-1626 (3268)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.4¢	$30.48	$33.2	+$2.72	57% 13017-9926 (22943)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$23.11	$23.5	+$0.39	61% 1571-1019 (2590)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$255.46

Value

$136

PnL

-$119.45

Record

51%

577-548 (1125)

Istaroth

Invested

$133.02

Value

$125.57

PnL

-$5.59

Record

28%

280-709 (989)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$77.61

Value

$87.49

PnL

+$9.88

Record

50%

1642-1626 (3268)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.48

Value

$33.2

PnL

+$2.72

Record

57%

13017-9926 (22943)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$23.11

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$0.39

Record

61%

1571-1019 (2590)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.