Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 8?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 43¢ · $370 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$370.23
$46.42
38¢ → 43¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $277.56 | $337.47 | +$45.94 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $16.01 | $16.63 | +$0.77 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.6¢ | $9.08 | $8.82 | -$0.26 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | No | $7.3 | $7.3 | -$0.03 | 53% 4656-4095 (8751) |
Invested
$277.56
Value
$337.47
PnL
+$45.94
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$16.01
Value
$16.63
PnL
+$0.77
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$9.08
Value
$8.82
PnL
-$0.26
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$7.3
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
4656-4095 (8751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.