Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 8?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 7.0¢ · $9 held · ends Nov 8
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$9.31
-$0.52
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $6.89 | $6.94 | +$0.05 | 42% 2420-3373 (5793) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $1.95 | $1.54 | -$0.41 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.22 | $0.22 | -$0.15 | 53% 4566-4056 (8622) |
Invested
$6.89
Value
$6.94
PnL
+$0.05
Record
42%
2420-3373 (5793)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.54
PnL
-$0.41
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.22
PnL
-$0.15
Record
53%
4566-4056 (8622)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.