Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or higher on November 7?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $245 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$245.04
-$15.38
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $244.79 | $244.9 | +$0.12 | 97% 287-8 (295) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.2¢ | $13.28 | $0.13 | -$13.16 | 38% 864-1436 (2300) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$1.45 | 42% 914-1244 (2158) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0.9 | 53% 12575-10982 (23557) |
Invested
$244.79
Value
$244.9
PnL
+$0.12
Record
97%
287-8 (295)
Invested
$13.28
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$13.16
Record
38%
864-1436 (2300)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.45
Record
42%
914-1244 (2158)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.9
Record
53%
12575-10982 (23557)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.