Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 16?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $196 held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$195.89

Combined PnL

-$3.35

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 97.8¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$194.81

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$2.99

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.08

Total Shares50

Combined PnL-$6.34

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.9¢	$121.07	$123.63	+$2.56	43% 855-1149 (2004)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$30.91	$30.69	-$0.22	50% 919-927 (1846)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$12.11	$12.18	+$0.07	48% 1303-1431 (2734)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98¢	$10.36	$10.45	+$0.1	53% 7633-6716 (14349)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 95¢	$8.06	$8.39	+$0.33	53% 2407-2143 (4550)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$6.81	$6.96	+$0.15	39% 349-547 (896)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$2.5	$2.51	+$0.01	99% 1758-24 (1782)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$1.43	$0.59	-$0.84	14% 110-655 (765)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$73.17	$0.44	-$5.36	28% 3345-8619 (11964)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.2	$0.05	-$0.15	37% 359-623 (982)

241532532432

Invested

$121.07

Value

$123.63

PnL

+$2.56

Record

43%

855-1149 (2004)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$30.91

Value

$30.69

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

919-927 (1846)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$12.18

PnL

+$0.07

Record

48%

1303-1431 (2734)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$10.36

Value

$10.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

7633-6716 (14349)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.06

Value

$8.39

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$0.15

Record

39%

349-547 (896)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1758-24 (1782)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.84

Record

14%

110-655 (765)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.17

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$5.36

Record

28%

3345-8619 (11964)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

37%

359-623 (982)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.