Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 16?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 78¢ · $316 held · ends Nov 16

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$316.11

Combined PnL

$23.73

Smart Money Entry

84.5¢ → 77.8¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$149.43

Total Shares686

Combined PnL+$40.46

No5 traders

Total Value$166.68

Total Shares208

Combined PnL-$16.73

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Yesavg 15.4¢	$87.53	$126.29	+$38.76	43% 56-75 (131)
Haradwaith	Noavg 87.9¢	$175.8	$108.62	-$17.02	29% 308-740 (1048)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$40.59	$26.88	-$1.04	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 76¢	$16.4	$17.31	+$0.91	53% 2352-2120 (4472)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.1¢	$34.31	$12.53	+$0.18	14% 103-625 (728)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.2¢	$8.22	$8.22	+$0	71% 950-388 (1338)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 74.2¢	$5.22	$5.65	+$0.42	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$174.92	$5.63	+$1.47	54% 1125-974 (2099)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.6¢	$4.94	$4.99	+$0.05	42% 803-1100 (1903)

BilberryCTR

Yes

Invested

$87.53

Value

$126.29

PnL

+$38.76

Record

43%

56-75 (131)

Haradwaith

Invested

$175.8

Value

$108.62

PnL

-$17.02

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$26.88

PnL

-$1.04

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$17.31

PnL

+$0.91

Record

53%

2352-2120 (4472)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.31

Value

$12.53

PnL

+$0.18

Record

14%

103-625 (728)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.22

PnL

+$0

Record

71%

950-388 (1338)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$0.42

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$174.92

Value

$5.63

PnL

+$1.47

Record

54%

1125-974 (2099)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

803-1100 (1903)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.6%

77.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.