Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 16?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (44%) · Yes at 56¢ · $431 held · ends Nov 16

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 44%

Total Value

$431.46

Combined PnL

$14.27

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 56.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$396.15

Total Shares720

Combined PnL+$7.46

No5 traders

Total Value$35.31

Total Shares77

Combined PnL+$6.81

Yes — 44%No — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 52¢	$230.03	$243.36	+$13.34	54% 1126-976 (2102)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f	Yesavg 57.6¢	$117.72	$112.47	-$5.25	66% 90-47 (137)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 54.6¢	$26.62	$26.8	+$0.18	43% 848-1138 (1986)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 58.3¢	$14.32	$13.51	-$0.81	70% 975-415 (1390)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 39.6¢	$16.12	$13.3	+$7.24	14% 109-653 (762)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$8.5	$7.5	-$1	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 40.4¢	$6.28	$7.01	+$0.72	53% 7560-6672 (14232)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$5.54	$5.24	-$0.31	56% 882-689 (1571)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.11	$2.26	+$0.15	49% 900-921 (1821)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$230.03

Value

$243.36

PnL

+$13.34

Record

54%

1126-976 (2102)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f

Yes

Invested

$117.72

Value

$112.47

PnL

-$5.25

Record

66%

90-47 (137)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.62

Value

$26.8

PnL

+$0.18

Record

43%

848-1138 (1986)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.32

Value

$13.51

PnL

-$0.81

Record

70%

975-415 (1390)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$16.12

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$7.24

Record

14%

109-653 (762)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$6.28

Value

$7.01

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

7560-6672 (14232)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$5.54

Value

$5.24

PnL

-$0.31

Record

56%

882-689 (1571)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.11

Value

$2.26

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

900-921 (1821)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.