Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 14°C on November 16?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 71¢ · $242 held · ends Nov 16

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$242.25

Combined PnL

$33.18

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$120.83

Total Shares535

Combined PnL+$37.22

No6 traders

Total Value$61.36

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$4.03

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fARB<$100	Noavg 78¢	$60.88	$60.06	-$0.82	66% 90-47 (137)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$31.81	$30.99	-$0.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22.6¢	$29.07	$29.07	+$0
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.4¢	$44.39	$51.78	+$7.39	54% 1126-976 (2102)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$41.36	$39.06	+$18.21	14% 109-653 (762)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$26.24	$23.96	-$2.29	70% 975-415 (1390)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$29.18	$15.16	+$5.99	43% 848-1138 (1986)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$9.18	$14.82	+$5.64	43% 61-82 (143)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$14.93	$14.66	-$0.27	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 86¢	$9.09	$8.03	-$1.06	53% 7560-6672 (14232)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 76¢	$5.43	$5.43	+$0	58% 906-664 (1570)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 82¢	$5.77	$5.35	-$0.42	42% 1713-2335 (4048)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.94	$3.94	+$0	47% 930-1053 (1983)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fARB<$100

Invested

$60.88

Value

$60.06

PnL

-$0.82

Record

66%

90-47 (137)

Both legs:

No$31.8178¢-$0.82

Yes$29.0722.6¢+$0

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.39

Value

$51.78

PnL

+$7.39

Record

54%

1126-976 (2102)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.36

Value

$39.06

PnL

+$18.21

Record

14%

109-653 (762)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$26.24

Value

$23.96

PnL

-$2.29

Record

70%

975-415 (1390)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.18

Value

$15.16

PnL

+$5.99

Record

43%

848-1138 (1986)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.18

Value

$14.82

PnL

+$5.64

Record

43%

61-82 (143)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$14.93

Value

$14.66

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

$8.03

PnL

-$1.06

Record

53%

7560-6672 (14232)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

906-664 (1570)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$5.77

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.42

Record

42%

1713-2335 (4048)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.94

Value

$3.94

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

930-1053 (1983)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.