Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or higher on November 15?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $345 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$345.08

Combined PnL

-$0.2

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$345.02

Total Shares345

Combined PnL-$0.06

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$0.14

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$303.2	$303.2	-$0	99% 1449-21 (1470)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.98	$24.94	-$0.04	25% 733-2166 (2899)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.98	-$0.01	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	-$0	58% 771-565 (1336)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.91	$1.91	-$0	50% 784-774 (1558)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.02	52% 837-762 (1599)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.02	$0.02	+$0	60% 796-535 (1331)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0	49% 849-871 (1720)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.02	$0.01	-$0	58% 794-568 (1362)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.12	$0	-$0.12	42% 2644-3715 (6359)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$303.2

Value

$303.2

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1449-21 (1470)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$24.98

Value

$24.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

25%

733-2166 (2899)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.01

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

771-565 (1336)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

784-774 (1558)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

837-762 (1599)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

796-535 (1331)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

849-871 (1720)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

794-568 (1362)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

PnL

-$0.12

Record

42%

2644-3715 (6359)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.