Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on November 15?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $95 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$95.03

Combined PnL

-$6.26

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$94.79

Total Shares95

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$6.28

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.89	$59.94	+$0.05	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.41	$11.39	-$0.03	50% 723-711 (1434)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$9.99	+$0	35% 251-467 (718)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$5.09	$5.09	-$0	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.05	$5.04	-$0.01	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.34	$3.35	+$0.01	63% 741-442 (1183)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.27	$0.11	-$6.15	26% 550-1579 (2129)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.06	$0.06	+$0	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.03	$0.02	-$0.01	49% 789-829 (1618)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.36	$0.02	-$0.12	42% 2632-3663 (6295)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	57% 704-522 (1226)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$59.89

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$11.41

Value

$11.39

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.09

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.34

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.01

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.27

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$6.15

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.12

Record

42%

2632-3663 (6295)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.