Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 15?

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (59%) · No at 96¢ · $194 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 59%

Total Value

$194.36

Combined PnL

-$2.66

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 95.7¢

-3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$191.41

Total Shares196

Combined PnL-$2.66

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.95

Total Shares73

Combined PnL+$0

No — 59%Yes — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99¢	$39.6	$38.8	-$0.8	34% 234-460 (694)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$34.58	$34.04	-$0.55	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$29.68	$29.1	-$0.58	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$26.92	$26.44	-$0.48	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97¢	$24.24	$23.93	-$0.31	40% 660-990 (1650)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98¢	$14.7	$14.55	-$0.15	29% 63-155 (218)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98¢	$11.65	$11.27	-$0.38	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$4.89	$4.85	-$0.03	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98¢	$3.89	$4.56	+$0.66	50% 723-711 (1434)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 98¢	$3.91	$3.87	-$0.04	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$1.16	$1.09	-$0.06	57% 704-522 (1226)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.45	$0.4	-$0.04	43% 5075-6628 (11703)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$0.36	$0.35	-$0.02	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$0.32	$0.34	+$0.02	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$0.27	$0.27	+$0	51% 809-769 (1578)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$0.12	$0.27	+$0.15	42% 2632-3663 (6295)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$0.27	$0.22	-$0.05	51% 773-729 (1502)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$39.6

Value

$38.8

PnL

-$0.8

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.58

Value

$34.04

PnL

-$0.55

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$29.68

Value

$29.1

PnL

-$0.58

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.92

Value

$26.44

PnL

-$0.48

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$24.24

Value

$23.93

PnL

-$0.31

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

123987456<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.55

PnL

-$0.15

Record

29%

63-155 (218)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$11.65

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$0.38

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$3.91

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$0.04

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.04

Record

43%

5075-6628 (11703)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.15

Record

42%

2632-3663 (6295)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 17 top traders (59%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 42%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 42% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.