Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 15?

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 69¢ · $367 held · ends Nov 15

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 47%

Total Value

$367.03

Combined PnL

$38.37

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 68.5¢

-22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$256.84

Total Shares316

Combined PnL-$25.69

Yes10 traders

Total Value$110.2

Total Shares326

Combined PnL+$64.06

No — 47%Yes — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 87.9¢	$223.08	$149.67	-$16.13	32% 168-365 (533)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.7¢	$24.53	$72.17	+$58.18	40% 660-990 (1650)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 93¢	$37.2	$32	-$5.2	35% 251-467 (718)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 85.4¢	$29.98	$28.25	-$1.73	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$35.92	$22.68	-$0.57	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$8.41	$12.4	+$3.99	63% 741-442 (1183)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$8	-$1.5	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.6¢	$7.02	$7.11	+$0.08	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 83¢	$6.97	$6.72	-$0.25	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$6.6	$6.16	-$0.44	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$4.64	$4.91	+$0.27	50% 723-711 (1434)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.9¢	$3.95	$4.12	+$0.17	49% 789-829 (1618)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.3	$3.42	+$0.12	43% 5075-6628 (11703)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$1.29	$2.07	+$0.78	42% 2632-3663 (6295)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 70¢	$1.74	$1.76	+$0.02	40% 42-63 (105)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 68¢	$1.48	$1.59	+$0.11	65% 4317-2331 (6648)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.1¢	$1.58	$1.54	-$0.03	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.45	+$0.1	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.61	$1.01	+$0.4	51% 773-729 (1502)

Haradwaith

Invested

$223.08

Value

$149.67

PnL

-$16.13

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.53

Value

$72.17

PnL

+$58.18

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$32

PnL

-$5.2

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$29.98

Value

$28.25

PnL

-$1.73

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$35.92

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$0.57

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.41

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$3.99

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

PnL

-$1.5

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.02

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$6.72

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$6.16

PnL

-$0.44

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.64

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.42

PnL

+$0.12

Record

43%

5075-6628 (11703)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.29

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.78

Record

42%

2632-3663 (6295)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$1.76

PnL

+$0.02

Record

40%

42-63 (105)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0.11

Record

65%

4317-2331 (6648)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$0.03

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0.4

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 19 top traders (47%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.