Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 15?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 53¢ · $380 held · ends Nov 15

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$379.88

Combined PnL

$25.35

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 53¢

-19% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$226.41

Total Shares367

Combined PnL-$6.3

Yes3 traders

Total Value$37.24

Total Shares77

Combined PnL+$31.65

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 29.8¢	$86.8	$116.22	+$36.64	40% 660-990 (1650)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.8¢	$52.1	$82.3	+$33.29
└ No leg	Noavg 47.8¢	$30.57	$33.92	+$3.35
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 72.8¢	$124.66	$114.75	-$9.9	55% 1217-1009 (2226)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 60¢	$40.5	$35	-$0.95	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 59¢	$40.72	$29.81	+$2.17	26% 550-1579 (2129)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 58.8¢	$35.28	$28	+$1.69	34% 276-525 (801)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.08	$17.82	+$26.25	32% 168-365 (533)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.3¢	$17.43	$17.05	+$5.2	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 47¢	$11.46	$12.15	+$0.69	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 67¢	$6.7	$6.7	+$0	35% 251-467 (718)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$2.17	$2.37	+$0.2	63% 741-442 (1183)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.8

Value

$116.22

PnL

+$36.64

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

Both legs:

Yes$52.129.8¢+$33.29

No$30.5747.8¢+$3.35

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$124.66

Value

$114.75

PnL

-$9.9

Record

55%

1217-1009 (2226)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$40.5

Value

$35

PnL

-$0.95

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$40.72

Value

$29.81

PnL

+$2.17

Record

26%

550-1579 (2129)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$35.28

Value

$28

PnL

+$1.69

Record

34%

276-525 (801)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.08

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$26.25

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.43

Value

$17.05

PnL

+$5.2

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$11.46

Value

$12.15

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$6.7

Value

$6.7

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.2

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 53%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.