Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 15?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $115 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$115.08

Combined PnL

-$52.95

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$103.01

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$5

Yes5 traders

Total Value$12.06

Total Shares718

Combined PnL-$57.95

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$34.17	$34.42	+$0.26	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$30.46	$23.79	+$3.25	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$18.11	$19.62	+$1.52	30% 1043-2405 (3448)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$11.22	$11.18	-$0.04	57% 704-522 (1226)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$23.9	$6.04	-$17.86	40% 660-990 (1650)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.6¢	$45.18	$5.89	-$39.3	55% 1217-1009 (2226)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$5.16	$5.13	-$0.04	51% 809-769 (1578)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.06	$5.06	-$0	63% 741-442 (1183)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$3.75	$3.8	+$0.05	58% 726-520 (1246)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$1.86	$0.06	-$0.21	51% 773-729 (1502)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.15	$0.05	-$0.1	46% 1101-1303 (2404)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.51	$0.03	-$0.48	49% 758-801 (1559)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.17

Value

$34.42

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.46

Value

$23.79

PnL

+$3.25

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$18.11

Value

$19.62

PnL

+$1.52

Record

30%

1043-2405 (3448)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$11.22

Value

$11.18

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.9

Value

$6.04

PnL

-$17.86

Record

40%

660-990 (1650)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.18

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$39.3

Record

55%

1217-1009 (2226)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$0.04

Record

51%

809-769 (1578)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.06

PnL

-$0

Record

63%

741-442 (1183)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.8

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.86

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.21

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.1

Record

46%

1101-1303 (2404)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.48

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.