Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 14°C on November 15?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $131 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$130.66

Combined PnL

-$8.79

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$130.03

Total Shares130

Combined PnL+$0.19

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.64

Total Shares136

Combined PnL-$8.98

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$39.81	$39.85	+$0.04	29% 1104-2668 (3772)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$34.95	$34.96	+$0.01	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$29.72	$29.89	+$0.17	34% 234-460 (694)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$11.37	$11.36	-$0.01	49% 789-829 (1618)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.1	$5.1	+$0	50% 723-711 (1434)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$3.81	$3.8	-$0.01	49% 758-801 (1559)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$3.31	$3.3	-$0.01	57% 704-522 (1226)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.05	$1.76	-$0.01	51% 773-729 (1502)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.34	$0.51	-$8.82	32% 168-365 (533)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.28	$0.12	-$0.16	58% 726-520 (1246)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$39.81

Value

$39.85

PnL

+$0.04

Record

29%

1104-2668 (3772)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.95

Value

$34.96

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.72

Value

$29.89

PnL

+$0.17

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$11.37

Value

$11.36

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

789-829 (1618)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.1

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

723-711 (1434)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.81

Value

$3.8

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

758-801 (1559)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.31

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

704-522 (1226)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

773-729 (1502)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.34

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$8.82

Record

32%

168-365 (533)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

726-520 (1246)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.