Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on November 14?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 14

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$231.99

Combined PnL

-$110.28

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 86.9¢

-9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$210.98

Total Shares339

Combined PnL-$116.01

Yes4 traders

Total Value$21

Total Shares135

Combined PnL+$5.73

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 97¢	$280.29	$175.13	-$105.16	40% 625-948 (1573)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$39.51	$18.73	-$11.56	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$12.85	+$5.58	55% 1208-982 (2190)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89.2¢	$8.12	$7.64	-$0.48	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.4¢	$5.36	$5.24	-$0.12	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$3.08	$4.2	+$1.12	39% 220-343 (563)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 60.6¢	$2.72	$3.76	+$1.04	58% 684-501 (1185)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 10.8¢	$1.84	$2.25	+$0.41	48% 762-815 (1577)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$2.5	$1.53	-$0.97	99% 1213-13 (1226)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$0.8	$0.66	-$0.14	51% 787-755 (1542)

241532532432

Invested

$280.29

Value

$175.13

PnL

-$105.16

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.51

Value

$18.73

PnL

-$11.56

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$12.85

PnL

+$5.58

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$8.12

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$0.48

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.36

Value

$5.24

PnL

-$0.12

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$3.08

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.12

Record

39%

220-343 (563)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.72

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$1.04

Record

58%

684-501 (1185)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.41

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.97

Record

99%

1213-13 (1226)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$0.14

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.4%

86.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.