Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on November 14?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 86¢ · $170 held · ends Nov 14

Yes86¢No14¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

Total Value

$170.19

Combined PnL

$25.15

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes86%

No14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$134.76

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$75.76

No5 traders

Total Value$35.42

Total Shares110

Combined PnL-$50.61

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$64.8	+$57.53	55% 1208-982 (2190)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 89.9¢	$73.87	$28.4	-$36.83	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 71.6¢	$17.23	$19.5	+$2.27	51% 787-755 (1542)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 9.9¢	$2.05	$16.73	+$14.68	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 77.8¢	$9.4	$9.79	+$0.39	51% 746-711 (1457)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 74.2¢	$7.82	$7.94	+$0.12	50% 701-690 (1391)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$5.67	$5.82	+$0.14	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$5.66	$5.81	+$0.14	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 76.1¢	$3.89	$4.37	+$0.48	48% 762-815 (1577)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	$45.86	$3.57	-$12.82	40% 625-948 (1573)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$2.38	$2.26	-$0.12	72% 829-328 (1157)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$1.8	$0.95	-$0.85	39% 220-343 (563)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 19¢	$0.23	$0.23	-$0	38% 17-28 (45)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$64.8

PnL

+$57.53

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$73.87

Value

$28.4

PnL

-$36.83

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.23

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$2.27

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.05

Value

$16.73

PnL

+$14.68

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$0.39

Record

51%

746-711 (1457)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.82

Value

$7.94

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

701-690 (1391)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.67

Value

$5.82

PnL

+$0.14

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.81

PnL

+$0.14

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.48

Record

48%

762-815 (1577)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$45.86

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$12.82

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.26

PnL

-$0.12

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.85

Record

39%

220-343 (563)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

17-28 (45)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.