Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on November 14?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (82%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $113 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 82%

Total Value

$113.49

Combined PnL

$80.15

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$112.8

Total Shares113

Combined PnL+$129.41

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.69

Total Shares220

Combined PnL-$49.27

No — 18%Yes — 82%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+42 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 71.3¢	$384.97	$110.93	+$128.15	55% 1208-982 (2190)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68.6¢	$9.8	$1.87	+$1.26	72% 829-328 (1157)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.2¢	$17.39	$0.2	-$17.19	56% 2269-1817 (4086)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.3¢	$89.28	$0.17	-$19.84	40% 625-948 (1573)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.1	$0.1	+$0	49% 736-769 (1505)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.2¢	$6.15	$0.07	-$6.08	52% 1608-1475 (3083)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.87	$0.05	-$1.82	63% 716-429 (1145)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.4¢	$1.67	$0.03	-$1.64	58% 703-504 (1207)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.26	$0.03	-$1.24	51% 787-755 (1542)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$1.05	$0.03	-$1.02	46% 1077-1282 (2359)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0.02	-$0.44	27% 673-1791 (2464)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$384.97

Value

$110.93

PnL

+$128.15

Record

55%

1208-982 (2190)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$1.87

PnL

+$1.26

Record

72%

829-328 (1157)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.39

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$17.19

Record

56%

2269-1817 (4086)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.28

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$19.84

Record

40%

625-948 (1573)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

736-769 (1505)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.15

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$6.08

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.87

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.82

Record

63%

716-429 (1145)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.64

Record

58%

703-504 (1207)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.26

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.24

Record

51%

787-755 (1542)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.02

Record

46%

1077-1282 (2359)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.44

Record

27%

673-1791 (2464)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+42 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.