Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 15°C on November 13?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 92¢ · $214 held · ends Nov 13

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$214.21

Combined PnL

-$29.52

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 91.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$174.88

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$13.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$39.33

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$42.85

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$67.7	$77.35	+$9.65	37% 467-800 (1267)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 92¢	$44.85	$44.36	-$0.49	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 37.6¢	$80.56	$37.49	-$43.07	58% 1171-835 (2006)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.9¢	$33.71	$32.56	-$1.14	53% 1117-973 (2090)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 84¢	$37.26	$7.81	+$4.06	36% 3534-6183 (9717)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.76	$4.37	+$0.61	28% 987-2588 (3575)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89¢	$4.22	$4.29	+$0.07	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.55	$4.13	+$0.58	22% 117-411 (528)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$1.62	$1.84	+$0.22	35% 24-44 (68)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$67.7

Value

$77.35

PnL

+$9.65

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$44.85

Value

$44.36

PnL

-$0.49

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.56

Value

$37.49

PnL

-$43.07

Record

58%

1171-835 (2006)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.71

Value

$32.56

PnL

-$1.14

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$37.26

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$4.06

Record

36%

3534-6183 (9717)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$4.37

PnL

+$0.61

Record

28%

987-2588 (3575)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$3.55

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$0.58

Record

22%

117-411 (528)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.84

PnL

+$0.22

Record

35%

24-44 (68)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.