Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 14°C on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $95 held · ends Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$94.91

Combined PnL

-$2.98

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$93.43

Total Shares96

Combined PnL-$0.96

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.48

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$2.02

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$48.05	$49.4	+$1.34	53% 1117-973 (2090)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$19.54	$19.51	-$0.03	30% 3006-7182 (10188)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 98¢	$43.47	$9.07	-$2.09	36% 3534-6183 (9717)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$30	$7.82	-$0.29	37% 467-800 (1267)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.04	$5.13	+$0.1	29% 928-2220 (3148)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 823-8 (831)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$3.39	$1.44	-$1.96	61% 2175-1410 (3585)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.1	$0.04	-$0.06	58% 1171-835 (2006)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$48.05

Value

$49.4

PnL

+$1.34

Record

53%

1117-973 (2090)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.54

Value

$19.51

PnL

-$0.03

Record

30%

3006-7182 (10188)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$43.47

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$2.09

Record

36%

3534-6183 (9717)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$30

Value

$7.82

PnL

-$0.29

Record

37%

467-800 (1267)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$5.04

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.1

Record

29%

928-2220 (3148)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

823-8 (831)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.39

Value

$1.44

PnL

-$1.96

Record

61%

2175-1410 (3585)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.06

Record

58%

1171-835 (2006)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.