Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $50 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$50.04
-$3.79
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00 0x005e...6d8e<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.45 | $27.27 | -$2.18 | — |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.17 | $4.79 | -$0.38 | 52% 435-403 (838) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.03 | $4.66 | -$0.37 | 46% 461-549 (1010) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5 | $4.63 | -$0.37 | 38% 3372-5405 (8777) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3.5 | $3.24 | -$0.26 | 99% 372-2 (374) |
69 0x69f0...fb27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $3 | $2.78 | -$0.22 | — |
D7 0xd717...3b85<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.68 | $2.68 | -$0 | — |
Invested
$29.45
Value
$27.27
PnL
-$2.18
Record
—
Invested
$5.17
Value
$4.79
PnL
-$0.38
Record
52%
435-403 (838)
Invested
$5.03
Value
$4.66
PnL
-$0.37
Record
46%
461-549 (1010)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5
Value
$4.63
PnL
-$0.37
Record
38%
3372-5405 (8777)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$0.26
Record
99%
372-2 (374)
Invested
$3
Value
$2.78
PnL
-$0.22
Record
—
Invested
$2.68
Value
$2.68
PnL
-$0
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.