Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $411 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$410.83
$11.73
95.2¢ → 95.7¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $323.35 | $334.18 | +$10.83 | 34% 345-674 (1019) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $42.68 | $43.58 | +$0.9 | 68% 2098-982 (3080) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.6 | +$0 | 53% 5788-5165 (10953) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $5.08 | $5.08 | +$0 | 46% 461-548 (1009) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $4.94 | $4.94 | +$0 | 51% 412-396 (808) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $3.46 | $3.46 | +$0 | 47% 448-500 (948) |
Invested
$323.35
Value
$334.18
PnL
+$10.83
Record
34%
345-674 (1019)
Invested
$42.68
Value
$43.58
PnL
+$0.9
Record
68%
2098-982 (3080)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.6
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5788-5165 (10953)
Invested
$5.08
Value
$5.08
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
461-548 (1009)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$4.94
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
412-396 (808)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
448-500 (948)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.