Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 12?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $921 held · ends Nov 12

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$920.81

Combined PnL

-$10.87

Smart Money Entry

71¢ → 67¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$920.81

Total Shares1,241

Combined PnL-$10.87

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 69¢	$317.2	$321.59	+$4.39	61% 1149-749 (1898)
HE hello.67	Noavg 74.9¢	$300.16	$284.88	-$15.28	68% 2098-982 (3080)
24 241532532432	Noavg 69.9¢	$274.87	$275.68	+$0.81	34% 345-674 (1019)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.6¢	$25.92	$18.69	-$0.13	55% 658-540 (1198)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 73¢	$14.6	$14	-$0.6	53% 5788-5165 (10953)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.56	$3.51	-$0.05	47% 448-500 (948)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 70¢	$2.47	$2.47	+$0	51% 412-396 (808)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$317.2

Value

$321.59

PnL

+$4.39

Record

61%

1149-749 (1898)

hello.67

Invested

$300.16

Value

$284.88

PnL

-$15.28

Record

68%

2098-982 (3080)

241532532432

Invested

$274.87

Value

$275.68

PnL

+$0.81

Record

34%

345-674 (1019)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.92

Value

$18.69

PnL

-$0.13

Record

55%

658-540 (1198)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

$14

PnL

-$0.6

Record

53%

5788-5165 (10953)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

448-500 (948)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.47

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

412-396 (808)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 67%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.1%

67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$44.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

144.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.