Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 14°C on November 12?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $187 held · ends Nov 12

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$187.45

Combined PnL

-$50.18

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 83¢

-3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$63.77

Total Shares510

Combined PnL-$46.37

No8 traders

Total Value$123.68

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$3.81

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$70.52	$45.14	-$25.38	34% 356-690 (1046)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84¢	$43.32	$41.87	-$1.45	77% 618-184 (802)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$39.43	$27.36	-$0.69	55% 683-554 (1237)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 89¢	$26.24	$25.35	-$0.88	52% 435-403 (838)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$39.62	$18.62	-$21	68% 2107-991 (3098)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 89¢	$13.81	$13.35	-$0.47	53% 5821-5182 (11003)
D7 0xd717...3b85<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$5.46	$5.16	-$0.3	—
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.13	$4.33	+$0.2	47% 483-555 (1038)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 83¢	$4.15	$3.95	-$0.2	38% 3372-5405 (8777)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 87¢	$2.33	$2.3	-$0.03	50% 450-444 (894)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.52

Value

$45.14

PnL

-$25.38

Record

34%

356-690 (1046)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$43.32

Value

$41.87

PnL

-$1.45

Record

77%

618-184 (802)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.43

Value

$27.36

PnL

-$0.69

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$26.24

Value

$25.35

PnL

-$0.88

Record

52%

435-403 (838)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.62

Value

$18.62

PnL

-$21

Record

68%

2107-991 (3098)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$13.81

Value

$13.35

PnL

-$0.47

Record

53%

5821-5182 (11003)

0xd717...3b85<$100

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.2

Record

47%

483-555 (1038)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.2

Record

38%

3372-5405 (8777)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

450-444 (894)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.