Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on November 11?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $488 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 100%
$487.94
$11.89
97.4¢ → 99.8¢
+2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $347.76 | $359.28 | +$11.52 | 30% 256-590 (846) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $29.95 | $29.94 | -$0.01 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.56 | $29.53 | -$0.02 | 46% 317-371 (688) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $20.5 | $20.52 | +$0.02 | 40% 657-967 (1624) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $15.37 | $15.39 | +$0.02 | 43% 334-446 (780) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $10.24 | $10.25 | +$0.01 | 48% 307-339 (646) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $9.71 | $9.99 | +$0.29 | 54% 461-396 (857) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $7.98 | $7.98 | +$0.01 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $5 | $5.06 | +$0.06 | 99% 217-2 (219) |
Invested
$347.76
Value
$359.28
PnL
+$11.52
Record
30%
256-590 (846)
Invested
$29.95
Value
$29.94
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$29.56
Value
$29.53
PnL
-$0.02
Record
46%
317-371 (688)
Invested
$20.5
Value
$20.52
PnL
+$0.02
Record
40%
657-967 (1624)
Invested
$15.37
Value
$15.39
PnL
+$0.02
Record
43%
334-446 (780)
Invested
$10.24
Value
$10.25
PnL
+$0.01
Record
48%
307-339 (646)
Invested
$9.71
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$0.29
Record
54%
461-396 (857)
balthazar<$100Invested
$7.98
Value
$7.98
PnL
+$0.01
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.06
Record
99%
217-2 (219)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
241532532432
No — $359.28
qwen300.fund
No — $29.94
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $29.53
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $20.52
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $15.39
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $10.25
ghorrock
No — $9.99
balthazar
No — $7.98
1DVSBSTD
No — $5.06