Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 93¢ · $536 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$536.03
$20.25
90¢ → 92.5¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 89¢ | $337.76 | $350.94 | +$13.17 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $146.93 | $147 | +$0.07 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $25.37 | $25.67 | +$1.43 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $2.4 | $7.8 | +$5.4 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $4.45 | $4.63 | +$0.17 | 47% 292-335 (627) |
Invested
$337.76
Value
$350.94
PnL
+$13.17
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$146.93
Value
$147
PnL
+$0.07
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$25.37
Value
$25.67
PnL
+$1.43
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$5.4
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$4.45
Value
$4.63
PnL
+$0.17
Record
47%
292-335 (627)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.