Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 11?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 89¢ · $366 held · ends Nov 11

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$366.2

Combined PnL

$9.85

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$71.83

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$10.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.53

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.16

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Noavg 63.3¢	$141.48	$166.3	+$24.83	30% 256-590 (846)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.3¢	$83.68	$99.1	+$15.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.2¢	$57.8	$67.2	+$9.4
HE hello.67ARB<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$115.55	$127.54	+$11.99	68% 2062-949 (3011)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.5¢	$64.48	$72.7	+$8.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.2¢	$51.07	$54.83	+$3.77
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 71.7¢	$21.52	$26.55	+$5.03	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$13.65	$14.79	+$1.14	81% 525-121 (646)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 64¢	$12.6	$14.77	+$2.17	51% 4598-4501 (9099)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.7	$7.7	+$0	42% 338-475 (813)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 59¢	$3.35	$5.06	+$1.71	66% 4093-2118 (6211)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 76¢	$2.99	$2.96	-$0.04	43% 334-446 (780)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.69	$0.53	-$0.16	54% 461-396 (857)

241532532432ARB<$100

Invested

$141.48

Value

$166.3

PnL

+$24.83

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

Both legs:

No$83.6863.3¢+$15.43

Yes$57.835.2¢+$9.4

hello.67ARB<$100

Invested

$115.55

Value

$127.54

PnL

+$11.99

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

Both legs:

No$64.4866.5¢+$8.22

Yes$51.0738.2¢+$3.77

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$21.52

Value

$26.55

PnL

+$5.03

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$13.65

Value

$14.79

PnL

+$1.14

Record

81%

525-121 (646)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$14.77

PnL

+$2.17

Record

51%

4598-4501 (9099)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.7

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

338-475 (813)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$1.71

Record

66%

4093-2118 (6211)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

43%

334-446 (780)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

461-396 (857)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.