Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C on November 11?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 50¢ · $145 held · ends Nov 11

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$144.96

Combined PnL

$34.75

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$133.35

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$37.07

No2 traders

Total Value$11.6

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$2.32

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 34.6¢	$57.97	$85.49	+$27.52	61% 1144-746 (1890)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 36.7¢	$37.18	$46.58	+$9.4	30% 256-590 (846)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 72¢	$21.67	$9.15	-$1.97	54% 445-377 (822)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.45	-$0.35	40% 657-967 (1624)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$1.13	$1.28	+$0.15	81% 525-121 (646)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.97

Value

$85.49

PnL

+$27.52

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.18

Value

$46.58

PnL

+$9.4

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$21.67

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$1.97

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$0.35

Record

40%

657-967 (1624)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.28

PnL

+$0.15

Record

81%

525-121 (646)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.