Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 10?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $451 held · ends Nov 10

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$450.92

Combined PnL

$7.97

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 96.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$450.92

Total Shares465

Combined PnL+$7.97

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95.2¢	$342.87	$348.58	+$5.71	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$34.74	$34.26	-$0.48	31% 163-361 (524)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$50.87	$24.84	+$2.57	51% 197-186 (383)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$20.45	$20.31	-$0.14	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$10.74	$10.62	-$0.12	36% 462-806 (1268)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$9.28	$9.68	+$0.4	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$2.61	$2.63	+$0.02	28% 153-400 (553)

241532532432

Invested

$342.87

Value

$348.58

PnL

+$5.71

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$34.74

Value

$34.26

PnL

-$0.48

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$50.87

Value

$24.84

PnL

+$2.57

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$20.45

Value

$20.31

PnL

-$0.14

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.74

Value

$10.62

PnL

-$0.12

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.28

Value

$9.68

PnL

+$0.4

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.02

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 7 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.