Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 31?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $310 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$310.21
$68.47
83¢ → 99.5¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 83.8¢ | $236.76 | $209.88 | +$29.02 | 19% 334-1402 (1736) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $58.85 | $39.96 | +$21.46 | 53% 6608-5804 (12412) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $29.32 | $29.45 | +$0.14 | 61% 21205-13534 (34739) |
HE HellYeahTrader<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $17.82 | $21.34 | +$1.98 | 55% 435-356 (791) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $37.87 | $5.67 | +$6.74 | 59% 1859-1299 (3158) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $17.61 | $3.91 | +$8.8 | 62% 1445-895 (2340) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $2.22 | $0 | +$0.33 | 57% 13877-10647 (24524) |
IstarothInvested
$236.76
Value
$209.88
PnL
+$29.02
Record
19%
334-1402 (1736)
Invested
$58.85
Value
$39.96
PnL
+$21.46
Record
53%
6608-5804 (12412)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.32
Value
$29.45
PnL
+$0.14
Record
61%
21205-13534 (34739)
Invested
$17.82
Value
$21.34
PnL
+$1.98
Record
55%
435-356 (791)
Invested
$37.87
Value
$5.67
PnL
+$6.74
Record
59%
1859-1299 (3158)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$17.61
Value
$3.91
PnL
+$8.8
Record
62%
1445-895 (2340)
Invested
$2.22
Value
$0
PnL
+$0.33
Record
57%
13877-10647 (24524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.